Ukraine, NATO Expansion & Proxy War
The Ukraine war is simultaneously a Russian war of aggression and the product of 30 years of decisions about NATO expansion, Maidan, and US covert involvement in Ukrainian politics. Both things are true. The Western narrative presents only one of them.
In 1990, US Secretary of State James Baker told Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would expand 'not one inch eastward.' NATO has since expanded from 16 to 32 members, adding seven Eastern European countries. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Whether these facts are causally connected is the most contested foreign policy question in the world.
Overview
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 was the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. Russia's stated justifications — NATO expansion, the protection of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, the denazification of Ukraine — were widely dismissed in the West as pretextual. But the history of the preceding three decades is more complicated than either the Western or Russian narrative acknowledges.
The NATO expansion question is documented, not theoretical. In 1990, during negotiations over German reunification, senior US and Western officials made verbal assurances to Soviet leadership that NATO would not expand eastward. These assurances were not put in treaty form. NATO subsequently expanded from 16 members in 1990 to 32 members today, including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states, and multiple former Warsaw Pact nations.
The 2014 Maidan revolution in Ukraine — in which President Yanukovych was ousted — was supported by the United States. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland's leaked phone call discussing who should lead the post-Maidan government ("Yats is the guy" — referring to Arseniy Yatsenyuk) documented direct US involvement in Ukrainian political transition. Nuland later acknowledged that the US spent $5 billion on "democracy promotion" in Ukraine between 1991 and 2014.
The war in the Donbas that began in 2014 and killed 14,000 people before the 2022 invasion is largely absent from Western coverage of Ukraine, as are the Minsk Agreements — the 2014 and 2015 negotiated ceasefire frameworks that Ukraine, France, and Germany later admitted were not implemented in good faith.
Timeline
NATO 'Not One Inch' Assurances
Baker, Kohl, Genscher, and other Western leaders give Gorbachev verbal assurances that NATO will not expand eastward.
Declassified US/German diplomatic cables, National Security Archive
NATO Expands East
NATO admits Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (2004) and Albania, Croatia (2009).
Maidan / Yanukovych Ousted
Ukrainian President Yanukovych flees after Maidan protests turn violent. Nuland call documenting US role leaked.
Leaked State Dept recording
Donbas War
War in eastern Ukraine kills 14,000 people. Minsk peace agreements signed but not implemented.
Full-Scale Russian Invasion
Russia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
$175 Billion+ US Aid
The United States commits over $175 billion in military, economic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Congressional appropriations records
Key Players
Victoria Nuland
Key architect of US Ukraine policy. Her leaked 2014 phone call documented direct US involvement in post-Maidan political arrangements.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Former comedian elected in 2019 on a peace platform. Became wartime leader after the 2022 invasion.
Vladimir Putin
Ordered the 2022 invasion. Has cited NATO expansion and protection of Russian speakers as justifications.
John Mearsheimer
University of Chicago professor whose 2015 analysis predicting conflict from NATO expansion became widely cited after the 2022 invasion.
The NATO Expansion Record
The question of whether Western leaders promised no NATO expansion is not a Russian talking point — it is documented in declassified diplomatic cables. The National Security Archive published a comprehensive analysis in 2017 based on documents from US, British, German, and Soviet archives.
The cables show that between February and March 1990, Baker, West German Foreign Minister Genscher, British Foreign Secretary Hurd, French President Mitterrand's advisers, and NATO Secretary-General Wörner all gave assurances to Soviet counterparts that NATO would not expand eastward. Some of these assurances were explicit, some implicit, none were binding.
The counter-argument — made by NATO, Western governments, and most Western analysts — is that these were verbal assurances, not treaties, made before German reunification and before the Soviet Union dissolved, and that sovereign nations have the right to choose their own alliances. This argument is legally correct. Whether it was strategically wise, and whether it constitutes a broken promise morally, is genuinely contested.
The 2014 US Role
The US role in the 2014 Maidan events is documented, though its extent and character are contested. Victoria Nuland's leaked phone call with US Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt in February 2014 — recorded and released by Russian intelligence — showed senior US officials discussing which Ukrainian political figures should lead the government after Yanukovych's departure. "Yats is the guy," Nuland said, referring to Yatsenyuk, who became prime minister weeks later.
Nuland subsequently confirmed in a 2014 speech that the US had "invested" $5 billion in "democracy promotion" in Ukraine since 1991. This figure represents funding for NGOs, civil society organizations, and political development programs — standard US foreign policy tools, but tools that critics argue function as regime-change infrastructure.
Whether these facts make the Maidan revolution illegitimate — or whether it was a genuine popular uprising with some US support — is genuinely contested. The evidence shows US involvement was real and substantial. The evidence does not show the US engineered or staged Maidan.
The Bottom Line
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is illegal aggression. It is also the predictable result of 30 years of decisions that serious analysts warned about in real time. Holding both of these things simultaneously is the minimum required for honest analysis of the conflict.
Primary Sources4 cited
National Security Archive NATO Expansion Documents
Comprehensive archive of diplomatic cables showing 1990 assurances.
Nuland Leaked Phone Call (February 2014)
Recorded conversation documenting US involvement in post-Maidan political arrangements.
Minsk Agreement Texts (2014, 2015)
Full text of negotiated ceasefire agreements that were not implemented.
Congressional Ukraine Aid Appropriations
Congressional records of US financial and military commitments to Ukraine.
Connected Topics
More in GEOPOLITICS & WAR
Continue investigating related topics in this category
A 75+ year conflict over land, sovereignty, and self-determination. Documented through UN resolutions, ICJ rulings, settlement data, and billions in US military aid.
The Saudi government's possible foreknowledge of or support for the 9/11 attacks has been investigated for over two decades. Declassified documents show connections between hijackers and Saudi officials, and FBI materials obtained by 9/11 families point to Saudi government complicity.
OPCW whistleblowers revealed that the organization's published findings on the 2018 Douma chemical attack were altered to suppress evidence contradicting the narrative used to justify Western missile strikes.
The US invaded Iraq based on claims of weapons of mass destruction that proved entirely false. The Duelfer Report confirmed: no WMDs. The Downing Street Memo showed intelligence was 'fixed around the policy.'